Why optimism has vanished within 10 games for Lopetegui's West Ham

Julen Lopetegui’s appointment at West Ham was meant to herald the arrival of an attacking, bold style of football after the platform built across the previous five years.

The ex-Wolves boss had been pragmatic in the manner he saved Molineux from a return to the Championship but with the promise of greater resources in London, there was hope this job would elicit more memories of his time in charge of Sevilla where he won the Europa League only four years ago, albeit in style more than silverware.

More than £130m has been spent on what appeared individually to be sensible signings – although they have produced little to justify the third-biggest net outlay across the Premier League last summer.

No-one expected perfect free-flowing football on the table after 10 games, but they expected some sign of a direction of travel.

But after years of relative stability, with the caveat of defensive football, under Moyes, the chaotic underbelly at the London Stadium has returned.

Something has to change, and fast. Everton’s games with West Ham have seemed to become obligatory win-or-bust games for both managers in the last few seasons, and this weekend’s meeting the London Stadium appears no different with newspaper rumours Lopetegui could be replaced if they lose.

It is a remarkable situation given the optimism around East London less than three months ago that he could be out the door quicker than his ill-fated Real Madrid reign in 2018.

West Ham’s start to the season has been poor, but the glacial move towards the more progressive style desired has been his biggest hindrance.

In his first game against Aston Villa it was still Tomas Soucek, the robust 6ft 4ins remnant of the Moyes era, making late runs into the box to latch onto long balls in behind. He has long been a dependable face in midfield, but not a player an attacking manager would build their side around.

Now 10 games in, it is still only Jarrod Bowen and Mohammed Kudus – far more creative players by nature – who can match his 40 opposition-box touches, and both have enjoyed more game time than he has this season.

West Ham are playing fewer passes in the opposition half than at any stage under Moyes. The percentage of long passes is stubbornly refusing to drop. Fans are becoming frustrated by a lack of tangible progress, both from results and what they can see with their own eyes.

Lopetegui insisted his philosophy is developing at the London Stadium in the build-up to the Everton game before caveating he has had to adapt to his players too.

But with Lucas Paqueta, Mohammed Kudus and Jarrod Bowen at his disposal, a trio who created 94 chances between them last season, this is not a team lacking in attacking creativity or technical ability.

Paqueta racked up almost half of those chances himself but his drop in form represents one of the new head coach’s biggest headaches. He is the creative lynchpin he would want, but under Lopetegui his chance creation has dropped by around a third, not helped by muddled tactical thinking from his new manager.

It took Moyes time to get the best out of the Brazilian but by last season, he had found home almost exclusively on the left flank. This season he has drifted inside more, but has affected the game far less. Understandably he is beating his man barely half as much as he was, but in a role where he should be creating more, his expected assists have experienced a similar drop.

Things were at their worst at Nottm Forest last weekend, where Paqueta found himself the one making runs in behind the home defence to latch onto long balls forward from Bowen.

He made more runs into the box than in any other game this season, but this should be Bowen’s job. It was a strange role reversal and one which will not have helped Lopetegui’s attempts to win his players’ trust in his methods.

A dynamic forward would help plug the gap it appears he is struggling to fill. Michail Antonio continues to work hard up front, but at 34 his best years are firmly behind him.

That makes the decision to bring in competition of a another player already in his 30s in Niclas Fullkrug even more of a gamble, doubly so on a four-year contract. The £27m arrival has managed just three substitute appearances in the Premier League, and has not featured since August.

Externally, the blame for West Ham’s transfer issues has been laid at the feet of technical director Tim Steidten, who despite a questionable recruitment record at the London Stadium is said to be in the running for the vacant sporting director post at Arsenal.

Kudus is the only one of 10 major signings under his remit whose introduction has been a clear success, though last summer’s six newcomers still need time to bed in.

In mitigation, Moyes’ sway in his final season afforded him significant influence over transfers, and Steidten found himself somewhat sidelined over incomings.

But the starting midfield at Nottm Forest of Edson Alvarez and Guido Rodriguez, were both clear Steidten signings.

Alvarez has shown promise in his time in London, but his disciplinary issues raise an increasing problem for the club given he will miss a fifth game through suspension in barely a season against Everton on Saturday.

That puts extra responsibility on Rodriguez, who after a bright start has struggled – though he also took time to settle at his previous club Betis.

It does not help that in the most physically demanding league in world football both he and Soucek, who have started six of 10 league games together, rank in the 20 slowest midfielders in the Premier League this season.

Not that pace alone makes a good midfield. But if West Ham are going to control games and play further up the pitch, they will open themselves up to counter attacks and will need pace in transition.

Even before that, dynamism in midfield – the kind Declan Rice used to provide – has been sorely missing since the start of last season. Extrapolating from the first 10 games, both of the seasons since his departure are on course for being West Ham’s worst defensively since the formation of the Premier League.

That is a problem beyond Lopetegui’s making, but it is one he needs to fix. He is yet to find a solution but tried to paper over it at Forest last weekend when he switched to a 3-4-3 for the first time.

The third centre-back also aimed to offer extra cover to the attacking remit Lopetegui has handed his full-backs, who are ending up inside the opposition box almost twice as much as they were in Moyes’ last season.

Ignoring the unusual decisions further forward, defensively there was some logic to it. But Lopetegui’s players look devoid of confidence and belief as much as they do tactical understanding at this point.

The debacle at Tottenham three weeks ago summed it up. Unusually resolute for 45 minutes after taking an early lead, they collapsed once Yves Bissouma put them behind for the first time in the match and conceded three goals in eight minutes as their heads dropped.

Lopetegui stressed the importance of belief and consistency in his pre-match press conference on Thursday. “We have to create a kind of strength inside the team,” he said.

Confidence is a commodity hard-earned and easily lost in football. Facing an Everton side with four points from five away games presents an opportunity to build that momentum, and a chance to move within touching distance of the top half.

But with a fragile mental state, key players absent in Kudus and Alvarez and a manager who doesn’t appear to know his best team, that may prove easier said than done.