Jones Knows is back with his best bets across the Premier League card with firm focus on Sunday’s blockbuster at Anfield, live on Sky Sports.
How did we get on last weekend?
It was a good one.
The headline was +16 points of profit were gobbled up, taking us to +20 for the season. Those that have stuck with me through some mediocre months are now swimming in winners.
The Leon Bailey-Ollie Watkins assist-goal combo landed at 4/1 with double stakes advised while the weekend treble of Bailey to score or assist, both teams to score and over 2.5 goals in Tottenham vs Crystal Palace and under 2.5 goals in Burnley vs Bournemouth also did the business at 8/1. That’s now three winning trebles from the last four weekends.
P+L = +20
Liverpool vs Manchester City – 1pt on BTTS, the game to end as a draw & 4+ total match offsides (17/2 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
The game of the season deserves the Jones Knows treatment in terms of a Bet Builder.
In 29 games between the two legendary coaches, Klopp has won 12, Guardiola 11 and there have been six draws.
We’re still very early in this ‘run-in’ period and if you offered both managers a draw now, I think they’d be taking it. There is so much football to be played. There’s a strong possibility the game may head down the same avenue as the previous fixture this season that ended 1-1 where the last 30 minutes were a non-event. And the last time these two met in a first vs second battle during a run-in it ended 2-2 in 2022 when City went on to win the Premier League title by one point.
You can get 100/30 with Sky Bet for both teams to score and the game to end in a draw, meaning every correct drawn score is covered apart from the 0-0.
Offsides also look ripe for a bet in this blockbuster encounter and we can combine the draw with offsides to produce a 17/2 shot.
Playing with a high-line and squeezing the game is so important to both these managers, so I’m always interested in the total offside count when teams of this nature and quality meet.
There have been 64 offsides in the last 11 meetings between Liverpool and Manchester City in all competitions – that averages out at 5.8 per game. Yet the market has their total offside line lower than that average with four or more offsides in the match looking a slice of value.
1pt on: Under 1.5 first-half goals in Man Utd vs Everton, BTTS & Over 2.5 goals in Palace vs Luton, Villa to win or draw vs Spurs & 4+ total offsides in Liverpool vs Man City (7/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
I usually like to keep the multiple selections to a treble but I’ve played a few shorter prices this weekend so we’re upping the bet to a four-fold.
Everton are the half-time 0-0 kings as 14 of their 27 Premier League games this season have been all square at the break. That’s a 52 per cent strike rate – the most of any team. So, the goalless draw at the break is always a bet I’ve got on my radar when Everton play. This looks the time to pull the trigger when assessing the opposition.
United have only scored eight first-half goals at home in 16 games this season, failing to score in 12 of those matches. No Premier League team have scored fewer first-half goals than United. That first 45 minutes just screams low scoring.
Of the 27 games involving both Sheffield United, Luton, Burnley, Nottingham Forest, Crystal Palace, Everton and Brentford this season, the overall goal average has been 3.07 per game – usually that is above the market expectation of edgy and cagey affairs. And 41 per cent of those 27 games have seen four or more goals scored.
And then you throw Luton’s recent change of style into the mix that has seen 41 goals scored in last nine Premier League games, working out at a 4.5 per game average, it suggests both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals has a fine chance of landing in Palace vs Luton.
Meanwhile, Villa look a tasty price to avoid defeat to Tottenham and – as referenced above – offsides also look ripe for a bet in the blockbuster encounter at Anfield.
1pt on Anthony Elanga to score vs Brighton (4/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Anthony Elanga is 4/1 to score vs Brighton
Nottingham Forest look primed to get a result at Brighton owing to their counter-attacking style. The man at the heart of Forest’s counters is Anthony Elanga – his lightning pace and dynamite dribbling are perfectly suited for Nuno’s counter-attacking style.
Since the former Spurs boss took over in December, Elanga leads the way in all key attacking metrics for Forest: shots (18), shots on target (9), big chances (9) and expected goals (4.1). Yet his goal output of just two goals is lagging behind those impressive underlying numbers.
This underperformance is keeping his goalscorer prices rather chunky and he’s a bet this weekend to score at 4/1 with Sky Bet.
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