Opta Supercomputer: Who wins the Premier League and by how many points?

Opta’s Supercomputer has predicted Liverpool will claim their first Premier League title since 2019/20 in Arne Slot’s first season on Merseyside.

Very few would have tipped Liverpool to make such a positive start to life under Slot given the fact he was faced with the task of filling the sizeable shoes of a departing Jurgen Klopp.

However, the Dutchman’s instant impact at Anfield has seen them top the league after 11 games with a five-point buffer on second place going into the November international break.

With nine victories, one draw and only a single defeat, Slot’s Liverpool have conceded the least in the league this season and have scored the joint-third most goals thus far.

It’s form that Opta says has positioned Liverpool in the box seat to end Manchester City’s four-year reign as champions, with a 60.32 per cent chance of bringing the title back to Anfield. In doing so, Slot would become the fifth manager to win the Premier League in their maiden season.

But despite a stunning start, Liverpool’s title bid is anticipated to yield the least amount of points a champion has earned for nearly 10 seasons. With 85 points predicted as the total return for the Reds, they wouldn’t make the top two in 50 per cent of the last eight seasons.

Liverpool are forecast to pip Manchester City who are in second while Arsenal, who are hoping to end a two-decade-long wait for league glory, are in third in the predicted table.

Who makes the Champions League spots?

Chelsea, who currently sit third in the Premier League, are predicted to make a return to Europe’s elite competition. The two-time Champions League winners haven’t played in the competition since they were beaten in the quarter-finals by Real Madrid in 2023.

Their absence from the Champions League has coincided with a tumultuous time both on and off the pitch for the Blues, but under Maresca the west London side may have found a formula of stability to earn them a spot in the top four behind Arsenal.

Performances in Europe by English teams could dictate whether the Premier League earns a fifth Champions League spot. Eddie Howe’s Newcastle will hope that’s the case as the Magpies are tipped for a fifth-place finish, just beating Fabian Hurzeler’s Brighton, who are in sixth ahead of Tottenham, Aston Villa and Fulham.

Ruben Amorim will have the considerable task of taking over a Manchester United side that are currently predicted to finish in 10th, their lowest position since the Premier League began and their worst campaign since 1989/90.

When the Portuguese boss takes charge of his first game, United will be four points shy of fifth place. However, the Red Devils will have just a 2.18 per cent chance of making the top four, according to the Opta Supercomputer.

Who will be relegated?

According to Opta, the three promoted sides in Leicester, Southampton and Ipswich will be doomed for a direct return to the Championship. The Saints are the only of the promoted three currently occupying a spot in the relegation zone as they are rock bottom with four points.

Russell Martin’s side are joined by Wolves and Crystal Palace who, alongside the 2023/24 Championship play-off winners and Ipswich, only have one win so far. However, both Palace and Wolves are tipped to beat the drop this season, despite their respective poor starts.

What does the ‘expected positions’ table say?

The expected table is slightly different to the predicted table and uses metrics like expected goals for, expected goals against, expected goal difference and expected points to position teams.

While this table has the same top two as the predicted rankings, it suggests both Fulham and Tottenham should be in the top four. Bournemouth follow closely behind in fifth.